hold on for the ride

I was doing a little blog stalking research tonight and it occurred to me that American Idol is like a roller coaster. All of the dramatic highs and lows are scripted in well advance. You know, even as you're standing in line, where this train is going. There is little danger of any lasting effects. And yet, even knowing all this, it can be a lot of fun to just climb on board and enjoy it for what it is. Let yourself go, pretend the best singer stands a snowball's chance of wining. Imagine for a moment that the whole thing just might fall off the tracks.

In the spirit of suspended disbelief, I'll play along. Here's my guess for final outcome. I'd type this with my hands in the air if I could. ('Cause you know, everything's more fun with your hands in the air.)

The next three to go off, in any order at all will be (I hope) Kristie Lee Cook, Syesha Mercado and Carly Smithson. The first can sing, but not well enough, the second can sing but is not memorable (but she just might be America's Next Top Model) and the last can sing but can't smile while doing so. Carly, Carly if only you could connect with the audience.

So that leaves us a top four of, in random order: David Cook, David Archuleta, Jason Castro and Brooke White.

First up, Jason Castro. I'd love to see him make top three but I can't see the ticket-takers at Idol going with an all male finale (who would wear the gown?) so I'm guessing he'll go fourth from the top. He won't win, and as mentioned yesterday, it won't matter a bit. He'll on to make amazing records, be spared the horror of ever singing "This Is My Now" and will, if my dream comes true, record a duet with Jack Johnson. Sign me up.


David Cook will go third from the top. You're surprised I know. You're thinking, but that leaves Brooke and the kid in the top two. I'm getting to that. Cook's best hope is to go the way of Chris Daughtry. This guy has front man written all over him. I just can't see him as a solo artist. How many solo rockers are there anyway? Can you name one? So he won't win either, and thank goodness for that.


So that gives us a top two of David Archuleta and Brooke White. And no, I didn't really see that coming either but there is a certain logic it to it. What both David and Brooke have going for them is

the cute factor. They both make you go Awww which while it may be nauseating for those of us old enough to drive, it strikes a chord with 11 - 13 year old girls. And when it comes to a competition decided by rabid fans, there's no outrunning (or out-texting) a rampaging herd of preteen girls. (Pass the LipSmackers.) The upside of this is that if Archuleta wins AI will actually, finally crown someone with real talent. The downside is that he could use a couple of years yet to grow into that talent. So who will win in the end? My money's on the little guy.

Predictable? As sure as there will be tears and confetti on finals night. But even so, it's fun while it lasts. Hold on for the ride. Besides, you never really know what will happen when Americans vote. They did bring Dubya back for a second term . . . sorta.